Posted 07/03/06 Defensenews
Big Ships for Beijing?
Analysts Can’t Agree Whether China Wants or Needs Carriers
By WENDELL MINNICK, TAIPEI
Will China operate planes from an aircraft carrier in the next decade?
It’s a two-part question that starts with this one: Does Beijing want to do so?
Western observers who believe the answer is yes point to China’s rising desire to project force into sea lanes, especially to protect the flow of oil from the Arabian Gulf through the Strait of Malacca.
But other analysts disagree.
“Whilst China was interested in building a carrier, it had shelved the plan for a variety of reasons,” said Ian Storey, Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, Honolulu.
Storey said Beijing has developed other ways to address the strategic vulnerability of relying on Middle East oil.
“If China is interested in protecting its ships and SLOCs [sea lanes of communication], then it can do that without carriers — frigates, destroyers and subs,” he said.
“However, one or two carrier battle groups would be useful in this regard, and I suspect that that is China’s long-term goal. Put it this way — China’s Malacca dilemma is an added incentive for the PLAN [People’s Liberation Army Navy] to acquire aircraft carrier capability, and I am sure senior Chinese admirals are making that argument these days.”
U.S. academic and government analysts are split. Some predict a Chinese aircraft carrier by 2015; others say it will not happen until after 2020, according to the Pentagon’s recent report to Congress, “Military Power of the People’s Republic of China 2006.”
Bernard Cole, a China Navy specialist at the National War College in Washington, said China may first deploy 12,000-ton ships carrying about a dozen aircraft within a decade.
“The next step, within 15 years, would be carriers of approximately 30,000 to 40,000 tons, similar in size to the U.S. LHA/LHD…
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